PrepTest 150, Section 1, Question 4
The following passage was written in the mid-1990s.(446 more words not shown)
It can be reasonably inferred(33 more words not shown)
- Aa strong correspondence(18 more words not shown)
- Bthat the model(15 more words not shown)
- Cthe extent to(11 more words not shown)
- Da close fit(21 more words not shown)
- Ea long-term match(18 more words not shown)
Reading the passage
Judge the models the way the author does. Early greenhouse estimates were too high, which created a problem. Including sulfates improved their agreement with observed temperatures. Solar models matched some fluctuations but could not explain the whole recent rise.
What we’re looking for
So predict a match between what the model calculates and what actually happened over the relevant period. The question is about a century-long trend, not simply whether the model looks convincing or fits a few recent years.
Working the answers
- A
This has the right kind of comparison: calculated versus observed temperatures. Its weakness is “the last few years.” A model can fit a short stretch and still fail to explain the longer trend, just as the solar models fit some fluctuations without explaining the entire increase. “Average global temperatures” is not the problem.
- B
A simple explanation might be appealing, but the author never makes simplicity the standard. The concern is whether the calculated temperatures agree with the evidence.
- C
Revision alone doesn't show that a model succeeds. A model might be revised repeatedly and still give inaccurate estimates. What matters here is whether the adjustment improves the fit.
- D
A plausible warming mechanism isn't enough to explain this particular trend. The greenhouse mechanism was already available when its early estimates failed to match observations. The author also checks the results against the temperature record.
- ECorrect
This combines the right comparison with the right time scale: long-term estimated changes versus the temperatures that actually occurred. It captures the standard applied to both the improved greenhouse model and the insufficient solar explanation.
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