PrepTest 157, Section 4, Question 11

AnalogyDifficulty5 of 5
Passage 2Prediction markets as information processors or opinion measures
The questionFull text in your LawHub copy of PrepTest 157

Passage A Markets, such as stock exchanges, distill(484 more words not shown)

Passage A(279 more words not shown)

Passage B(213 more words not shown)

The relationship between which one(28 more words not shown)

Reading the passage

We need the relationship between the claims, not just titles about prediction. A credits markets with an impressive ability to process information. B responds that this description gives them too much credit: they merely reflect opinions.

What we’re looking for

Look for an initial attribution of an ability followed by a response that redescribes the activity as something less impressive.

Working the answers

  • A

    An essay about computing's future and an attack on futurists' track records don't clearly provide that ability-versus-reduction relationship. The second criticizes forecasters, rather than redescribing what computers do.

  • B

    Both titles concern election prediction, which makes them tempting. But discussing margins of error is compatible with accepting that computer models predict elections. B makes a stronger, different move: what looks like special predictive power is merely current opinion. Shared subject matter alone doesn't supply that relationship.

  • C

    These titles ask about the pace and possible slowing of innovation. Our writers disagree over what markets accomplish, not whether their development will slow.

  • D

    The second title favors the computer program by saying it outperforms fund managers. We need the second essay to reduce the favorable assessment, not add evidence for it.

  • E
    Correct

    The first title attributes thinking to computers. The second denies that description and substitutes executing programs. That parallels A's account of markets processing knowledge and B's claim that they merely register opinion. The match is the downgrade in the description of the ability, not the specific technology.

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