PrepTest 157, Section 4, Question 10

Author's OpinionDifficulty3 of 5
Passage 2Prediction markets as information processors or opinion measures
The questionFull text in your LawHub copy of PrepTest 157

Passage A Markets, such as stock exchanges, distill(484 more words not shown)

Passage A(279 more words not shown)

Passage B(213 more words not shown)

The authors of the two(16 more words not shown)

Reading the passage

They disagree about what market prices establish, but both connect those prices with what participants know or believe. A's insiders change the fictional-stock price through their trades. B's horse looks healthier, so the betting odds change. That gives us a concrete point of agreement about responses to information.

Working the answers

  • A

    Neither account establishes superiority to any expert whatsoever, and B certainly doesn't endorse that broad ranking. A's criticism of relying on credentials isn't proof that every expert performs worse.

  • B

    Neither describes completely random movements. A links prices to information; B links them to current opinions and the horse's apparent condition. Doubting predictive reliability isn't claiming there is no pattern at all.

  • C

    A's experiment shows inside information spreading quickly through prices. That doesn't support easy, prolonged manipulation by insiders, and B provides no such claim either.

  • D
    Correct

    A says the market rapidly learns what informed people know. B's racetrack example likewise shows new information about a horse changing the odds. They differ about the reliability of the judgment, not whether new information can affect it.

  • E

    A expressly says the Iowa markets predicted certain election outcomes better than 75 percent of the polls. This cannot be an agreed claim when it conflicts with A's evidence.

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