PrepTest 127, Section 1, Question 15
Some scientists have expressed reservations about quantum theory(47 more words not shown)
Which one of the following(8 more words not shown)
- AA scientific theory(13 more words not shown)
- BA scientific theory(20 more words not shown)
- CThe consequences of(18 more words not shown)
- DA theory should(14 more words not shown)
- EA theory should(12 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
A theory can be counterintuitive and still be right. Finding an idea hard to picture is not the same as finding a failed prediction. So the scientists' discomfort with quantum theory makes me want to know how well its predictions hold up.
The answer is quite well: serious attempts to show them inaccurate have instead found agreement within the accepted statistical margin of error. Its competitors have not matched that record. That is evidence in the theory's favor.
Does that warrant accepting it? Passing the tests so far does not establish that a theory could never turn out to be wrong. But acceptance and permanent certainty are different standards. What the argument needs is a rule explaining why this kind of successful testing is enough to justify acceptance.
What we’re looking for
For the principle that most helps, I would expect a rule favoring the best-supported theory or one saying that a theory that survives serious attempts to disprove it should be accepted. We want the successful tests to give us a reason to accept quantum theory.
Working the answers
- A
We are not told that quantum theory has fewer counterintuitive consequences than its rivals. We know it has some counterintuitive consequences and a better testing record. A bases acceptance on a comparison the evidence never establishes.
- BCorrect
This rule turns the stated testing record into a reason for acceptance. Quantum theory has faced rigorous attempts to disprove its predictions, and those attempts have instead found the predictions accurate within the accepted margin. B says surviving serious attempts of that kind warrants accepting the theory. That directly supports the author's move from experimental success to acceptance.
- C
This changes how we should describe the theory's consequences: if the predictions are accurate, don't call them counterintuitive. But the conclusion is not about which label to use. We need a principle supporting acceptance of the theory, and C never supplies that recommendation.
- D
Requiring serious testing before rejection does not say that passing those tests calls for acceptance. A scientist could satisfy D by withholding judgment until testing occurs, then still want more evidence. D places a limit on rejecting a theory; it does not justify the positive recommendation here.
- E
“Only if” gives a requirement for acceptance: the predictions must not have been disproved experimentally. Meeting one requirement need not be enough. A theory could pass that test and still fail some other standard for acceptance. B supplies a positive reason to accept a theory with this record; E only rules out accepting theories that fail its condition.
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