PrepTest 127, Section 1, Question 6
Violent crime in this town is becoming a(41 more words not shown)
Which one of the following,(7 more words not shown)
- AThe town's overall(16 more words not shown)
- BIn general, persons(21 more words not shown)
- CAs a result(20 more words not shown)
- DIn response to(17 more words not shown)
- ECommunity officials have(18 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
Seventeen percent more calls received a police response. Does that mean there were 17 percent more violent crimes? Perhaps the police became better at responding to calls that previously went unanswered. More responses and more crimes are different things.
Even an increase in actual crime would leave questions. For example, suppose an actual crime rate rose from 1 incident per 100,000 residents to 1.17 per 100,000. That would be a 17 percent increase, but still a small absolute risk. Those are hypothetical rates, not what the call records establish. And comparing this year with last year cannot by itself establish “more likely than ever.” Perhaps the town was much more dangerous ten years ago. We would also want to know how any increase was distributed among residents before making a claim about the average citizen.
What we’re looking for
So the argument asks its evidence to do a lot. My first concern is the jump from police responses to actual violence; better police coverage could explain the number. A low starting crime rate would also make the claim of a serious problem less convincing. For a weakener, I would look for a fact that makes those response statistics a poor guide to the danger people now face.
Working the answers
- A
This concerns the overall crime rate, which includes crimes other than violent ones. It does not establish that the violent-crime evidence is misleading. An overall increase also gives no clear reason to reject the claim that the town has a growing crime problem.
- B
An age comparison is not a change over time. People under 65 could be less likely to be victims than people over 65 while both groups' risks were increasing. B does not show that the average resident's risk has stayed the same or declined.
- CCorrect
Here is another explanation for the additional calls: people have become more willing to report violent crimes. This differs from my first thought about the police responding more reliably, but it exposes the same problem with using response totals as a measure of actual crime.
Imagine the number of violent incidents staying the same while a larger share gets reported. The police could respond to more calls without anyone facing a greater underlying risk. C does not prove that crime is unchanged or that the town is safe; it weakens the inference from the reported increase to the claimed danger.
- D
Opening a community center shows that the town is responding to a concern. It does not tell us whether the center reduces violent crime, how much crime exists, or what accounts for the additional calls. We cannot assume the program's success from its existence.
- E
A few repeat offenders could commit a great many crimes. Knowing who commits most of the violence does not tell us whether there is more of it than before or whether residents face more danger. E divides the offenses among offenders without resolving the trend.
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