PrepTest 127, Section 2, Question 14
Psychologist: We asked 100 entrepreneurs and 100 business(66 more words not shown)
Which one of the following,(10 more words not shown)
- AThe questions asked(12 more words not shown)
- BAt least some(22 more words not shown)
- CAnother survey showed(11 more words not shown)
- DThe business managers(15 more words not shown)
- EHow confident each(26 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
Before interpreting the survey, I'd want to know what questions the two groups answered. Business managers and entrepreneurs may have different areas of familiarity. Questions about accounting could produce a different pattern from questions about day-to-day strategies for attracting customers.
Both groups were overconfident, and the entrepreneurs were more so. Accept that reported result. Does it establish that especially overconfident people are more likely to attempt starting a business? We have a pattern among people already in these roles, and the psychologist uses it to explain who is likely to try to become an entrepreneur.
One concern is whether confidence on these questions tells us much beyond the particular subject matter. Someone could be very confident answering Star Wars questions without being unusually confident in other areas. Another is that this comparison covers only entrepreneurs and business managers. It doesn't automatically tell us how confidence operates across everyone who might start a business.
What we’re looking for
The question asks us to strengthen the psychologist's conclusion. These concerns give us several places to look, so let's see which answer adds the strongest support.
Working the answers
- A
Including personal, political, and business questions makes the survey broader than a quiz confined to one narrow specialty. That could help with the concern about subject matter. It still doesn't directly connect greater overconfidence with attempts to start a business, and a variety of topics doesn't guarantee a well-balanced survey.
- B
Knowing the overall odds of success doesn't settle how confident someone is about their own chances. An entrepreneur could know most new businesses fail and still feel unusually sure that theirs will succeed. This fact about some entrepreneurs' knowledge does not provide the needed connection between overconfidence and the decision to try.
- C
Success in business is different from attempting to start a business. Confident people might perform well in existing management jobs, for example. A connection between confidence and success therefore doesn't establish that especially overconfident people are more likely to make entrepreneurial attempts.
- DCorrect
The managers who were most overconfident had also tried to start businesses. That extends the relevant pattern into the comparison group: a person need not currently be classified as an entrepreneur for overconfidence and a past entrepreneurial attempt to occur together. It directly supports the link the psychologist proposes, beyond merely improving our view of the survey questions.
This doesn't prove that overconfidence caused those attempts or establish when the confidence developed. It does give the conclusion more support, which is the task.
- E
This connects confidence in the survey answers to confidence in business ability. That could make the questions more relevant to the business setting. But it still doesn't connect greater overconfidence with attempts to start businesses. D supplies evidence about the action the conclusion predicts.
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