PrepTest 145, Section 2, Question 17
The radio station claims that its new format(59 more words not shown)
The argument proceeds(1 more words not shown)
- Aconcluding that an(18 more words not shown)
- Breferring to an(12 more words not shown)
- Cquestioning the legitimacy(16 more words not shown)
- Dproviding a direct(13 more words not shown)
- Eclaiming that an(14 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
Who is calling in requests? Those listeners may be especially happy with the station's new format. Hearing from them doesn't establish how the station's listeners as a whole feel.
The author makes that sampling problem clearer with an election analogy. Imagine interviewing people at a candidate's rally and using their enthusiasm to conclude the candidate is popular with voters generally. Of course that selected group is likely to be supportive. The unanswered question is how well it represents everyone the conclusion concerns.
What we’re looking for
The radio argument has the same problem: request callers are a selected group within the listener population, just as decided supporters are a selected group within the electorate. We're asked how the author argues. The author points to an obviously unreliable inference in another setting to expose the weakness in the station's similar inference.
Working the answers
- A
A biased person conducting a survey is different from a survey using an unrepresentative group. The criticism isn't that the radio station wants a favorable result and therefore cannot be trusted. It's that the request callers may not represent all listeners. A also misses the use of the election comparison, but its description of the underlying criticism is already wrong.
- BCorrect
The election inference is the clearly flawed one: interviewing only decided supporters doesn't establish popularity with voters generally. The author uses that case to undermine the analogous radio inference from pleased request callers to pleased listeners generally. The two examples differ in topic but share the relevant sampling problem.
- C
The author doesn't offer a better estimate of the format's popularity. We aren't told, for example, that only half of all listeners like it. The author questions whether the station's evidence supports its claim by comparing the reasoning to another case.
- D
A direct counterexample would provide actual evidence conflicting with the conclusion about this format's popularity. The election situation is an analogy, not an instance of the radio format being unpopular. Also, the author calls the evidence inconclusive; the format might still be popular for all we know.
- E
A contradiction would involve claims that cannot both be true. For example, the same yes-or-no survey couldn't have 75 percent answer yes and 75 percent answer no if each person gave exactly one answer. Nothing like that occurs here. Many callers can like the format while the sample still fails to establish what all listeners think.
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