PrepTest 151, Section 4, Question 12

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The questionFull text in your LawHub copy of PrepTest 151

If future improvements to computer simulations of automobile(50 more words not shown)

Which one of the following,(7 more words not shown)

Reading the argument

Crashing a car on a screen sounds a lot cheaper than destroying a real car. If both give manufacturers equally reliable safety information, switching to simulations makes sense.

But is safety information everything they get from a real crash?

Perhaps a crash also helps a manufacturer learn how expensive the car will be to repair, or how well parts resist damage. Those possibilities don't tell us that real tests must continue. They show why matching the safety information may not be enough: the cheaper method could leave out something else the manufacturer values.

What we’re looking for

To strengthen the prediction of far fewer actual crashes, I'd look for an answer reducing that concern. If real crashes provide little other important information, the cheaper simulation becomes a much more convincing replacement.

Working the answers

  • A
    Correct

    This addresses the possible additional value of actual crashes. Once simulations provide the same reliable safety information, manufacturers would lose very little other important information by using fewer real crashes. The cost advantage therefore gives a stronger reason to switch.

    Notice the modest wording. A says 'very little,' not that actual crashes have no other value whatsoever. That is enough to strengthen a prediction of far fewer tests; we don't need to prove manufacturers would stop every real crash test.

  • B

    This makes the technical improvement sound likely. But the argument already tells us what it predicts if that improvement occurs. The question is whether matching safety information, together with lower cost, would lead manufacturers to use fewer actual crashes. B doesn't address that connection. Even excellent simulations might leave manufacturers wanting other information from real crashes.

  • C

    Safer cars are a different outcome from fewer actual test crashes. Manufacturers might use better simulations to improve safety while continuing real crashes for other purposes. C doesn't show that the simulation's safety information would replace enough of the real test's value to reduce its use.

  • D

    A falling overall cost of testing and designing safety features doesn't tell us why costs are falling or which testing method manufacturers will choose. We can't assume that simulations caused the trend. We need support for the choice between simulated and actual crashes, not merely a prediction about total costs per automobile.

  • E

    This is more tempting: another industry successfully uses crash simulations. That makes the proposed use less unfamiliar. But successful use doesn't mean the aviation industry stopped doing real tests, and it doesn't tell us what additional information car manufacturers get from actual crashes.

    Airplane simulations could be a helpful supplement rather than a replacement. A directly addresses the reason automobile manufacturers might retain real tests even after the safety information is matched, so it provides stronger support for this argument.

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