PrepTest 149, Section 4, Question 9
Politician: Some proponents of unilateral nuclear arms reduction(66 more words not shown)
Which one of the following(9 more words not shown)
- ACountries that are(20 more words not shown)
- BUnilateral nuclear arms(14 more words not shown)
- CMany countries cannot(11 more words not shown)
- DIt is unlikely(11 more words not shown)
- EIt is risky(19 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
What if the other countries don't follow our lead?
Unilateral reduction means reducing our weapons without waiting for the others to do the same. The proponents hope that setting an example will encourage them to reduce theirs too. But our action doesn't, by itself, make their response dependable.
The politician focuses on countries close to civil war. My first question would be whether those countries actually have nuclear capability, and the passage answers it: many do. The politician then says they cannot be relied upon to follow an international military policy. That supplies a reason to worry about acting on the proponents' expectation.
What we’re looking for
For the main conclusion, we need the warning those reasons support: reducing our nuclear arms in the hope of producing an international agreement is risky. We don't have to decide the whole issue of arms reduction or declare that every possible agreement will fail.
Working the answers
- A
This resembles the concern about unstable countries, but it isn't the overall warning about our country's action. It also changes unreliable conformity to a policy into unlikely agreement to reduce weapons, and adds conventional weapons. The relevant evidence supports the warning; A doesn't restate that conclusion.
- B
Encouraging other countries to reduce their arsenals is the proponents' hope, not the politician's conclusion. The politician questions whether we can count on that response. B also says all countries, which is stronger than the initial account of what proponents expect.
- C
Concealing nuclear capability is different from failing to follow an international policy. The politician doesn't claim that countries are hiding the extent of their weapons. That might be another concern someone could raise, but it isn't the conclusion or reason supplied here.
- D
The politician says acting on this argument would be dangerous. That doesn't establish that an international agreement is unlikely ever to be achieved, by any route and at any time. A warning about relying on one proposed strategy is narrower than D's sweeping prediction.
- ECorrect
It is risky to reduce our nuclear weapons alone in hopes of obtaining an international arms-reduction agreement. That is the claim supported by the concern about nuclear-capable countries whose compliance can't be relied upon. E preserves the action, the hoped-for result, and the politician's judgment about its risk.
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