PrepTest 101, Section 2, Question 10
Economist: The economy seems to be heading out(24 more words not shown)
That consumers are buying more(16 more words not shown)
- AIt is the(7 more words not shown)
- BIts truth is(10 more words not shown)
- CIt is an(12 more words not shown)
- DIt is an(14 more words not shown)
- EIt is the(9 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
Why think the recession is ending? Are businesses producing more? Are more people finding work? The economist points instead to consumers buying more durable goods.
That buying pattern is evidence worth considering, but I want to understand the connection. The economist treats the purchases as a sign that consumers expect growth. Even if that reading of their expectations is right, couldn't the consumers be wrong? People might feel optimistic about the economy before there is good reason to be optimistic. Their expectations don't guarantee that the recession is ending.
We can see the argument's direction despite that concern. The figures about purchases are the starting evidence. The economist uses them to infer consumers' expectations and support the overall claim that the economy seems to be heading out of recession. The opening sentence is the point the other information is offered to support.
What we’re looking for
Now we're asked what role the increased purchases play. They are evidence for that conclusion—a premise. We aren't being asked to repair the argument or decide whether its economic forecast is accurate. Look for an answer describing how the economist uses the purchase figures.
Working the answers
- A
The economist isn't explaining why purchases rose. That would be a different argument: we would start with the rise and then offer a cause for it. Here the economist uses the rise as evidence about the economy. The increase is part of the explanation offered, not the event whose cause the argument is trying to discover.
- B
Evidence supporting a conclusion needn't be something without which the conclusion could never be true. The economy could start recovering for reasons this short argument doesn't discuss, even if purchases of these goods did not increase. The economist's use of the figures doesn't establish that such purchases are a required condition for leaving a recession.
- C
This puts the argument in the wrong order. The economist doesn't first assume that the recession is ending and then deduce that consumers must be buying more durable goods. The increased purchases come from recent figures, and the apparent end of the recession is the conclusion they help support.
- D
Again, follow which fact is used to support which idea. The figures tell us purchases increased. From those purchases, the economist infers that consumers expect growth. D would start with the expectations and infer the purchases. That reverses the direction of the reasoning we are given.
- ECorrect
The purchase figures are the main evidence the economist provides for the claim that the recession seems to be ending. They are the reported fact from which the argument proceeds. Calling them the “primary evidence” describes that role; it doesn't mean the evidence guarantees the conclusion or answers our concern about mistaken expectations.
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