PrepTest 144, Section 2, Question 25

What we’re looking for

Working the answers

• A

  Producing more shows doesn't tell us what proportion will be canceled. They could make more shows and have a better success rate. The conclusion is that most will be canceled, so a larger number produced doesn't supply the needed support.

• B

  This tells us the genre of most shows the company produced last year, but not whether those were the new shows that failed. The company could have produced many established police dramas while its new, canceled shows belonged to other genres. We need a closer connection between the relevant failures and this year's genre.

• C

  If none of the surviving shows were police dramas, any police dramas the company did produce would have been among its cancellations. But C doesn't establish that the company produced any police dramas last year, much less that its unsuccessful new shows were police dramas. It could be true in a year when the company produced no shows in that genre at all. D gives us the positive connection that C leaves open.

• D
  Correct

  We already know most of last season's new shows were canceled. D tells us all those canceled new shows were police dramas. Suppose the company introduced ten shows and six were canceled: D puts all six failures in the same genre as this season's new output. That makes the earlier failures more relevant to the forecast.

  Be careful about the direction. D doesn't say every police drama was canceled. Some could have survived. Its force comes from identifying the company's substantial group of failed new shows as police dramas, not from proving a perfect failure rate for the genre.

• E

  A show doesn't need to rank among the most popular programs to attract enough viewers to stay on the air. The absence of police dramas from the top tier doesn't establish that this company's new police dramas will have insufficient audiences. D ties the genre directly to the company's relevant cancellations.