PrepTest 144, Section 2, Question 16
When surveyed about which party they would like(51 more words not shown)
Which one of the following(11 more words not shown)
- AThe argument uses(16 more words not shown)
- BThe argument draws(12 more words not shown)
- CThe argument takes(21 more words not shown)
- DThe argument fails(21 more words not shown)
- EThe argument uses(12 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
What if the Conservatives want an entirely Conservative legislature, the Liberals want an entirely Liberal one, and the Moderates want an entirely Moderate one? We'd still get the survey's 40–20–40 split. But nobody in that example would want the mixed legislature the conclusion describes.
What we’re looking for
The survey tells us how preferences are divided across the respondents. The conclusion treats that division as the arrangement most individual citizens want. Those are different things. We don't have to insist that everyone really wants only their own party in office; the possibility is enough to show that the survey hasn't established what each person wants the whole legislature to look like. For the flaw question, look for the move from a group's overall pattern to the preferences of its individual members.
Working the answers
- A
The conclusion describes what most citizens supposedly want. It doesn't say what the legislature should actually look like. Reporting people's preferences is different from endorsing those preferences or making a recommendation about government.
- B
The conclusion doesn't merely repeat the survey result. It changes from the proportion of respondents choosing each party to the proposed mix of parties that most respondents supposedly favor. That change is exactly why the conclusion needs more support.
- CCorrect
The 40–20–40 pattern describes the group as a whole. The author assumes that most individual citizens prefer a legislature with that same pattern. But the split could result from three groups with different preferences, none of whom wants that overall mix.
- D
The argument explicitly starts its inference with 'if the survey results are reliable.' Even granting reliable results, the inference fails. We don't need to speculate about researchers' biases: an accurate account of the population's divided preferences still wouldn't establish the preferred arrangement of most individuals.
- E
The conclusion itself says 'roughly' 40–20–40, so it isn't claiming more precision than the survey supplies. The error concerns whose preferences the numbers describe, not rounding or the accuracy of the percentages.
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