PrepTest 140, Section 1, Question 16
At the end of 1997 several nations stated(61 more words not shown)
Which one of the following(6 more words not shown)
- AFor any nation(29 more words not shown)
- BIt is likely(29 more words not shown)
- CDuring the course(18 more words not shown)
- DIf a nation(33 more words not shown)
- EIf a nation's(19 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
The same balance doesn't mean nothing happened. If I spend $100 and deposit $100, my bank account ends where it started. It could also stay unchanged because I never touched it.
The same possibilities matter for oil reserves. Draining fields lowers them, and discovering fields raises them. Those changes might offset each other. The author thinks an unchanged total is unlikely and concludes that most of these nations probably reported incorrectly.
What we’re looking for
My first reaction is to ask whether the losses and discoveries could balance. But “probably incorrect” leaves room for some coincidences, so the argument doesn't need to assume that balancing is impossible. The question asks for a required assumption. We need a claim the argument actually depends on when applying its general account of changing reserves to these particular nations in 1997.
Working the answers
- A
This covers any nation with oil reserves and its statements about changes, not just the nations reporting unchanged reserves in 1997. The author doesn't need to assume that a nation's report of an increase or decrease is more likely mistaken than its reserves are unchanged. The argument targets a particular group of reports; A makes a much broader comparison.
- BCorrect
We need reason to think the events that change reserves actually occurred in most of these nations. If neither draining nor discovery happened, the author's own account gives us no reason to expect their reserves to change. B connects the general explanation with the relevant nations and year. It still allows changes to balance in some cases; it doesn't have to make every unchanged report impossible.
- C
No nation has to experience both kinds of change. Suppose reserves simply fell because oil was drained and no new fields were discovered. The reports of unchanged reserves could still be incorrect. The argument doesn't require a country whose reserves both dropped and rose.
- D
This also requires both draining and discovery. An incorrect unchanged report could result from draining alone or discovery alone. We don't need a rule saying every incorrect report must involve both events, and the argument doesn't establish that rule.
- E
An obligation to report correctly is different from actually reporting correctly. A nation could make an incorrect statement whether or not it was required to tell the truth. The argument evaluates the likely accuracy of the reports, not the nations' duties.
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