PrepTest 140, Section 1, Question 12
Climatologist: Over the coming century, winter temperatures are(53 more words not shown)
Which one of the following,(7 more words not shown)
- AGlobal warming will(20 more words not shown)
- BIn other mountainous(29 more words not shown)
- COn average, in(33 more words not shown)
- DOn average, in(28 more words not shown)
- EThe larger a(18 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
If there's less snow, why would there be more flooding?
Warmer winters causing more rain and less snow makes sense as the starting point here. The climatologist then predicts earlier, faster melting, more spring flooding, and less water left to store for summer. I can follow the proposed sequence, but the flooding step makes me pause. Faster melting might release water in a shorter period; less snow might also mean less water to release. We need support for how those effects work out.
What we’re looking for
The first temperature prediction is therefore being used as a premise, not as the final claim we're asked to strengthen. We want evidence for the forecast that follows it. A useful answer might show that milder winters really do lead to the combination the climatologist predicts: more spring flooding and less storable water.
Working the answers
- A
More precipitation might help explain more water arriving in spring, but an annual increase doesn't tell us when the water arrives or how much falls as snow. It also doesn't support the prediction of less storable water. A could help part of the story, but it leaves the combined outcome much less clearly supported than B does.
- BCorrect
Other mountainous regions have already shown the pattern: after milder winters, melting snowpacks produced more spring flooding and less storable water than after colder winters in those regions. That's a close comparison to the predicted change in the Rockies, and it supports both consequences. It doesn't prove the Rockies must behave identically, but it makes the forecast more credible.
- C
This is relevant support for less summer water, so don't reject it as unrelated. But it says nothing about the greater spring flooding that prompted our concern. It also compares different areas with different winter climates, rather than showing how mountainous regions fare after milder versus colder winters. B supplies the fuller, closer comparison.
- D
This mentions both flooding and stored water, but it compares regions around the world without restricting them to mountains or linking the outcomes to melting snowpacks. Many differences could separate the mildest and coldest regions. B more closely matches the setting and the process the climatologist relies on.
- E
This says larger snowpacks tend to produce more flooding. It doesn't tell us that the Rocky Mountain snowpack will become larger. The argument instead predicts more precipitation falling as rain and earlier melting. E doesn't establish how those changes would produce the forecasted result.
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