PrepTest 134, Section 1, Question 6
The number of tornadoes recorded annually in North(21 more words not shown)
Which one of the following,(11 more words not shown)
- AThe factors affecting(12 more words not shown)
- BThe intensity of(11 more words not shown)
- CThe number of(12 more words not shown)
- DThe amount of(10 more words not shown)
- EMany more citizens(9 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
Recorded tornadoes aren't necessarily all the tornadoes that occurred.
What if our ability to detect them has improved? Better equipment could catch storms that would have gone unnoticed in 1953. We'd then have more tornadoes in the records without needing a change in the climate that produces them.
What we’re looking for
That's the distinction to keep as we tackle the apparent discrepancy: how can recorded tornadoes more than triple while the climatic factors stay the same? We need an answer that makes both facts fit together. I'd predict better detection technology. The answer doesn't have to use that exact mechanism, but it should explain the increased count without requiring changed climatic conditions.
Working the answers
- A
Understanding what causes tornadoes is different from detecting and recording them. Meteorologists could have counted storms without understanding all the factors that produced them. Their earlier lack of knowledge doesn't tell us why the recorded number has since tripled despite unchanged climatic factors.
- B
Intensity concerns how strong the tornadoes are; the discrepancy concerns how many are recorded. Stronger storms alone don't explain why that count increased so much. We would need an additional connection, such as stronger storms becoming easier to detect, and B doesn't supply it.
- C
A small increase in the last five years doesn't explain the much larger increase since 1953. Most of that growth could have happened before the recent five-year period. We still need to know how the overall change in the records fits with the unchanged climate factors.
- D
Property damage could rise because more buildings stand in a tornado's path or because those buildings are more valuable. Damage isn't the number of tornadoes recorded. This gives us another change without explaining the one we were asked about.
- ECorrect
More people are helping detect tornadoes, so a larger share of the storms that occur can make it into the records. Imagine storms that previously passed through without anyone notifying the authorities. With more observers, those same kinds of storms are now reported.
This isn't my specific prediction of improved technology, but it works for the same reason: better detection can increase the recorded count. The underlying climate factors can remain unchanged while people notice and report more tornadoes. We don't need to establish that the actual number stayed perfectly constant; we just need a plausible way for the two stated facts to coexist.
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