PrepTest 123, Section 2, Question 9
Although video game sales have increased steadily over(56 more words not shown)
Which one of the following,(8 more words not shown)
- AMost people 17(10 more words not shown)
- BVideo game rentals(7 more words not shown)
- CNew technology will(12 more words not shown)
- DThe number of(14 more words not shown)
- EMost of the(17 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
Why would video-game sales suddenly fall? They've risen for three years. I want a reason to think that growth is about to stop.
The author points to a shrinking age group. Historically, thirteen- to sixteen-year-olds bought more than three quarters of the games, and there will be fewer people in that group. If those are still the customers the market depends on, I can see the concern.
But what happens when those players turn seventeen? Do they stop buying games? Maybe people who grew up playing keep buying as adults, even if older adults in the past didn't. The historical age pattern could change as the customers age.
What we’re looking for
That's what I'd want a weakener to show: the old picture of the customer base no longer describes who's buying. A smaller teenage group wouldn't settle the sales forecast if other ages were becoming important customers.
Working the answers
- A
Most people seventeen or older could have never bought a game while the remaining older buyers still formed a large, growing market. We don't need every older person, or even most older people, to buy games. This broad fact doesn't show that the old sales pattern is changing in a way that undermines the forecast.
- B
Rentals aren't sales. Fewer rentals could reflect less interest in games, or people could be buying instead of renting. The answer doesn't tell us which, so it doesn't establish a reason to reject the predicted decline in purchases. We shouldn't supply a connection that isn't given.
- C
New entertainment options don't establish continued growth in video-game sales. They might compete for the same people's time and money, which would give the forecast another possible basis. The existence of more options isn't the change in the customer base we need.
- D
How many kinds of games are available isn't the same as how many games people buy. The same range of games could stay available while sales fell. We need information bearing on purchases, not merely on variety.
- ECorrect
Most recent buyers are over sixteen. That gives us reason to question using the old thirteen-to-sixteen age pattern as the basis for a near-term sales prediction. Older customers are already a substantial part of the recent market.
Be precise about what E establishes: most buyers, not necessarily most individual games sold. It doesn't guarantee that sales will keep growing. But it does undercut the picture of the current market as dependent on the shrinking age group in the way the historical figures suggest. That is enough to weaken the forecast.
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