PrepTest 122, Section 1, Question 16
With decreased production this year in many rice-growing(64 more words not shown)
Which one of the following,(14 more words not shown)
- ARice-importing countries reduce(8 more words not shown)
- BIn times of(18 more words not shown)
- CIn times of(20 more words not shown)
- DGovernments that distribute(16 more words not shown)
- EDuring reduced rice(17 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
Rice production fell, and the price rose. A smaller supply could help explain that. The analysts add a more specific explanation: most rice stays under government control for local use, leaving only a small amount on the world market. A production change can therefore have a large effect on that limited market supply.
My first question is what changed this year. If governments have distributed rice locally for a long time, that policy alone isn't a new event explaining a new price increase. Still, an existing restriction could make a new production loss hit harder. We should question the analysts' account without pretending a longstanding condition can never contribute to a new result.
What we’re looking for
The question asks us to challenge that explanation. I'd investigate the role the governments actually play when production falls. Does their control leave the commercial market especially short of rice, as the analysts suggest? A relevant answer should bear on that account of the supply problem.
Working the answers
- A
Buying less after a dramatic price increase is a reaction to the increase. It doesn't show that the analysts are wrong about why the increase occurred. The reduced purchases could follow exactly the shortage the analysts describe.
- B
Storing more government rice and distributing less locally doesn't show that governments relieve the commercial shortage. If anything, keeping more rice in storage could leave other buyers under additional pressure to obtain food. B doesn't supply the missing market rice that would challenge the analysts' account.
- CCorrect
When production falls, governments release some rice that otherwise would have stayed in local distribution into countries with free grain markets. Their response adds rice to the commercial supply rather than keeping all that rice outside it.
That gives us reason to doubt the picture of a small market left especially exposed by government control. The exports could cushion the shortage. We don't need to claim that prices must fall or that the exports replace every lost grain. The fact that governments respond by supplying the market weakens the explanation that emphasizes their withholding rice from it.
- D
These governments buy commercially when production falls short. That adds buyers competing for the limited market supply, which could put further upward pressure on prices. It doesn't challenge the idea that government arrangements contribute to the price increase.
- E
Switching partly to other crops describes another response to reduced rice availability. The answer even says the substitutes fail to compensate fully. It doesn't show that the analysts have misunderstood how government control affects the rice available on world markets.
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