PrepTest 103, Section 3, Question 9
Scientific and technological discoveries have considerable effects on(27 more words not shown)
The argument depends on assuming(5 more words not shown)
- APredictions of scientific(14 more words not shown)
- BThe development of(7 more words not shown)
- CForecasts of scientific(12 more words not shown)
- DAn advanced scientific(8 more words not shown)
- EIt is not(23 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
A major discovery can change what everyday life looks like. That makes me cautious about a forecast stretching twenty years into the future.
Imagine someone predicting a future full of flying cars while overlooking a different technology that ends up transforming work and communication. Phones, computers, or artificial intelligence give us concrete examples of the kinds of developments a forecaster would have to consider. The point isn't that nobody could ever anticipate them. It is that a picture of the future can go wrong when a major development is missing from it.
So the argument feels plausible: frequent discoveries could make a society's future hard to forecast. Still, a discovery having a large effect isn't by itself the same as that effect being hard to predict. And a generally unreliable picture of a society's future needn't make every particular prediction about it false.
What we’re looking for
The question asks for an assumption the argument needs. I don't have a precise missing statement settled yet. I want to test what connects the effects of discoveries to the author's claim about the trustworthiness of forecasts.
Working the answers
- A
Harmful isn't the same as unreliable. A forecast could cause trouble even if it were accurate, or be inaccurate without causing harm. The conclusion concerns whether predictions can be trusted, so the argument doesn't require harmful consequences from making them.
- B
Discoveries can greatly affect development without being required for every kind of development. A society might improve roads using techniques it already knows, for example. We don't need to rule out that possibility to argue that future discoveries can upset forecasts. B turns a considerable influence into a requirement.
- CCorrect
The argument needs some uncertainty about the discoveries themselves or about their effects. If both could be forecast with complete reliability, the fact that discoveries greatly change society wouldn't by itself make predictions untrustworthy. The forecaster could simply include those known changes in the picture.
Think of a perfect crystal ball: even enormous changes wouldn't disrupt its forecast if it showed exactly what would happen. C rules out that complete reliability and supplies the connection the argument has been relying on.
- D
Having considerable effects doesn't require frequently providing benefits. A discovery could bring harm or a mixture of good and bad consequences and still greatly affect society. The argument about forecasting doesn't need the effects to be beneficial.
- E
This compares how difficult forecasting is in more and less technologically advanced societies. The argument instead concerns societies where discovery is particularly frequent. It doesn't need this particular ranking of difficulty, and being more advanced isn't automatically the same as having more frequent discoveries.
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