PrepTest 103, Section 3, Question 5
Consumer: I would like to have the features(69 more words not shown)
The reasoning in the company(15 more words not shown)
- Athe company will(11 more words not shown)
- Bsome of the(11 more words not shown)
- Ca significant number(13 more words not shown)
- Dthe consumer will(9 more words not shown)
- Esome of the(11 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
How many people had problems, not just how many called?
The consumer wants the new features but worries because a friend had trouble. The company responds with nearly 3,000 distributed copies and fewer than 100 complaint calls. That sounds like a low complaint rate—roughly one call per thirty copies at most. But it isn't automatically the rate at which users experienced problems.
Suppose 500 users had trouble and only ninety called the company. The company's figures could still be accurate, yet hundreds of problems would be missing from its count. Some people might fix the issue themselves, stop using the software, or decide calling isn't worth the effort.
What we’re looking for
Even the phrase “very unlikely” invites a question about how much risk the consumer would accept. But the clearer problem comes earlier: we don't yet know the actual frequency of trouble. For the flaw question, I expect the unreported problems. The representative treats a small number of reports as evidence that there were few problems to report.
Working the answers
- A
A future upgrade might fix the current version, but the reassurance concerns installing this upgrade now. The possibility of a later repair doesn't expose the mistake in estimating the chance of trouble with the current version.
- B
Seriousness and likelihood are different questions. A rare problem could be catastrophic, and a common problem could be minor. The representative predicts that a problem is unlikely, not that any problem will be harmless. B might matter to the consumer's decision, but it doesn't challenge how frequently problems occur.
- CCorrect
Many users could have experienced trouble without calling. That would make the complaint count a poor measure of the actual problem count. Our 500-users-and-ninety-calls example shows how the company's reported figures could be true while its reassurance is poorly supported. The representative needs a reason to treat the people who called as an adequate account of everyone who had trouble.
- D
Trouble without the upgrade doesn't show that trouble with the upgrade is unlikely. Both versions could have problems. D concerns the alternative course of action, while the representative's argument estimates the risk of installing the new version.
- E
Explaining some reported problems as failures to follow instructions doesn't establish how many problems went unreported. It may shift responsibility for those particular problems, but the consumer is asking whether trouble is likely. E doesn't expose the representative's unsupported move from few calls to few affected users.
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