LR Drill Set 13, Question 2
Rose: The book is either by Deerson or(27 more words not shown)
The pattern of reasoning in(13 more words not shown)
- AThat tree is(24 more words not shown)
- BThe culprits escaped(23 more words not shown)
- CJudging by what(32 more words not shown)
- DMargarethe the Second(27 more words not shown)
- ETomás will probably(31 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
We don't have to know which author wrote the book to make a reasonable guess about its publisher.
If it is Deerson's, Quince is the usual publisher. If it is Jones's, Quince is still the usual publisher. Either possible author points us toward the same likely result. Rose wisely says 'probably,' because 'generally' doesn't promise that every book uses Quince.
What we’re looking for
That's the structure to carry into the choices: either one group or the other, the same trait is common in each group, and therefore this particular member probably has that trait. Match the probability as well as the two alternatives. A conclusion guaranteed by an absolute rule, or a new step beyond the shared trait, would be a different pattern.
Working the answers
- A
Mercedes identifies most trees overall, but maybe beeches and elms are precisely the kinds she has trouble with. We need information about what usually happens with each of these two possible kinds, like the separate publishing patterns for Deerson and Jones. A gives a broad tree-identification rate instead.
- B
Either escape route required opening the gate. That part gives a certainty rather than a usual tendency. Then the argument adds another step from the gate opening to Isidore probably hearing it. What if Isidore was sound asleep? Rose doesn't add a comparable hearing-type step after establishing the common characteristic.
- C
Both possible traits are declared unsuitable, and the conclusion recommends against hiring George. The original uses a tendency within each of two groups to make a probable factual prediction. C instead treats either alternative as a definite reason for a hiring recommendation. The two-option setup alone isn't enough.
- DCorrect
Margarethe was born in either Luppingshavn or Kindelberg, just as the book was written by either Deerson or Jones. Most people in each city then had Mondarian ancestry, just as each author's books generally use Quince.
Whichever birthplace is correct, the same ancestry is likely. The conclusion therefore says Margarethe probably had Mondarian ancestors. It preserves both the shared tendency across the alternatives and the appropriately uncertain conclusion.
- E
This is the closest competitor. Tomás will attend one of two schools, and most students at each school report doing community service. But the conclusion predicts that Tomás will actually do community service.
Reporting an activity and doing it are different. If students exaggerate their participation, the reports wouldn't establish the behavior the conclusion predicts. Rose doesn't make that extra move from what people say to what is actually true. D keeps the same property throughout, which makes it the closer match.
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