PrepTest 155, Section 2, Question 1
CEO: While we only have the sales reports(56 more words not shown)
Which one of the following,(7 more words not shown)
- AThe CEO’s company(17 more words not shown)
- BThe quality of(15 more words not shown)
- CThe CEO has(16 more words not shown)
- DThe CEO’s company(18 more words not shown)
- ESeveral other companies(29 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
Nine good months are encouraging. Have they already made this a good year, or could the last three months still drag the average down?
Think of a pool company. January through September could be strong, but perhaps hardly anyone buys a pool during the final three months. The CEO is comparing this year's unfinished average with averages for complete years. Those missing months matter.
Let's make that concrete. Suppose the company averaged $36 million per month for nine months, then sold nothing in October, November, or December. Its total would be $324 million, and its twelve-month average would be $27 million. That fits the reported average of over $35 million so far, yet the final average could fall below last year's. We aren't predicting zero sales. We're showing why the strong start doesn't settle the result.
What we’re looking for
To strengthen the CEO's forecast, I'd like a reason to expect the final quarter to help rather than hurt. What if those are usually the company's best months? That would make the unfinished average a much better sign for the year as a whole.
Working the answers
- ACorrect
The missing three months are typically the company's strongest. That directly addresses our worry about a late-year collapse: the company's usual pattern gives us reason to expect a strong finish. The average might even climb above its current level. A historical pattern doesn't guarantee this year's result, but it makes the CEO's confidence more reasonable.
- B
High quality isn't the same as high sales. And the products have always been considered good, including during the earlier years with lower averages. This doesn't tell us what to expect during the three months we haven't seen.
- C
An incentive to emphasize good news concerns how the CEO presents the results. It doesn't supply evidence that the remaining months will go well. A favorable motive for making a claim cannot establish that the claim is true.
- D
I can see why this is tempting: successful advertising sounds good for future sales. But the answer says the campaign has been effective so far. That helps explain the nine good months we already know about. It doesn't address the unfinished part of the year as directly as A does. A gives us a reason to expect the final quarter itself to be strong.
- E
Other companies are also enjoying a good start. That tells us something about the industry, but those companies' figures have the same limitation: they cover the year so far. We still need to know whether our company's remaining months are likely to preserve its strong average.
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