PrepTest 146, Section 3, Question 10
Consultant: If Whalley sticks with her current platform(45 more words not shown)
The consultant’s conclusion follows logically(8 more words not shown)
- AThere is no(23 more words not shown)
- BThe issues that(16 more words not shown)
- CIf Whalley changes(11 more words not shown)
- DThere will be(17 more words not shown)
- EWhalley would change(14 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
How many voters are in each age group? Winning the older group by a larger percentage doesn't automatically make up for losing the younger group by a smaller percentage. The younger group might be much bigger.
What we’re looking for
We need an assumption that makes the consultant's conclusion follow. If there are more voters 50 and over, the argument works: Whalley's larger percentage-point advantage would apply to the larger group, while her smaller disadvantage would apply to the smaller group. That would give her more votes than her opponent overall. We need the argument to establish the numbers, rather than importing a real-world guess about which age group usually votes more.
Working the answers
- A
This might tell us that changing platforms offers no better trade between the age groups. It doesn't show that the current platform wins enough votes. A strategy can be the best available strategy and still lose. We need to prove that this path wins, not merely that changing paths wouldn't help.
- B
The groups might care about different issues, but that doesn't tell us how many votes each group contributes. Different priorities could explain the different levels of support while leaving the consultant's numerical gap untouched.
- C
This concerns what the opponent would do if Whalley changed her platform. The conclusion concerns what happens if she keeps it. We aren't told anything here about the missing group sizes or her overall vote total under the current platform.
- DCorrect
The larger percentage-point lead is in the larger group. That creates a bigger vote advantage than the smaller percentage-point deficit in the smaller group.
For example, suppose she loses the under-50 group by 2 percentage points among 1,000 voters: a deficit of 20 votes. If she wins the older group by 4 points among 2,000 voters, she gains 80 votes there. That more than offsets the 20-vote deficit. The exact numbers can change; under D, both the larger margin and the larger group favor Whalley. Her advantage must outweigh her deficit.
- E
Whalley's willingness to change if she thinks it will help doesn't establish that keeping the current platform will win. Her beliefs and choices could be reasonable or mistaken. We need evidence about the outcome of the current strategy, not a description of when she would reconsider it.
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