PrepTest 146, Section 1, Question 16
In most of this forest, the expected outbreak(32 more words not shown)
The conclusion of the argument(13 more words not shown)
- Amore than half(9 more words not shown)
- Bmature trees are(9 more words not shown)
- Cusually a higher(13 more words not shown)
- Dthe expected outbreak(15 more words not shown)
- Ethere are no(6 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
Tree-eating moths sound like something we'd want to stop. But the author gives us a reason they might help: in places unnaturally crowded with young trees, the moths are beneficial. So whether to counter them depends on the condition of the forest.
What we’re looking for
Does this forest have that problem? That's the missing connection. The recommendation concerns most of this particular forest, while the reason concerns forests with too many immature trees. To strengthen the conclusion, I'd say that this is the situation we're in: most of this forest is unnaturally crowded with immature trees.
Working the answers
- ACorrect
More than half is most. A places most of this forest in the category where the moths are beneficial, giving us a reason not to counter the outbreak in most of the forest. It connects the stated benefit to the actual place covered by the recommendation.
- B
Which trees the moths eat first doesn't establish that this forest has the overcrowding problem where they help. The argument's reason for allowing the moths concerns an excess of immature trees. B doesn't connect that reason to most of this forest, and eating mature trees first doesn't by itself show that allowing the outbreak would be beneficial here.
- C
This compares which trees forest fires destroy. It doesn't tell us that most of this forest is now unnaturally crowded with immature trees. Even if fire suppression can create that situation, we still need to know whether it applies here.
- D
This tells us the outbreak will probably happen if nobody counters it. But the question is whether we should counter it. A nearly certain outbreak could be a reason to intervene if it would be harmful. We need support for allowing these moths, not just confidence that they will arrive.
- E
A countermeasure doesn't have to be completely effective to be worth using. Suppose it stopped 90 percent of the moths. That could still be useful if the moths were harmful. The absence of a perfect response doesn't establish that we should refrain from responding, or connect the moths' stated benefit to this forest.
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