PrepTest 145, Section 4, Question 1
Pundit: Grenier will almost certainly not be elected(54 more words not shown)
Which one of the following(10 more words not shown)
- AVoters are unlikely(11 more words not shown)
- BVoters are unlikely(12 more words not shown)
- CVoters are unlikely(21 more words not shown)
- DVoters are likely(11 more words not shown)
- EVoters are likely(16 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
Grenier changed her mind. Why should that cost her the election? There could be perfectly good reasons to support higher wages now after opposing them before. Maybe living costs rose. Maybe the city has more money. Maybe she learned something that changed her view. The pundit actually accepts that her explanation is sincere.
But the prediction turns on what voters think. We're told most will see her as insincere despite that explanation. Let's grant their reaction. We still need the next step: will seeing her that way make them less willing to vote for her? A voter might dislike the change and still prefer her to the other candidates.
What we’re looking for
The question asks for a principle supporting the pundit's reasoning. Connect the perception to the electoral consequence: voters tend not to vote for politicians they consider insincere. That would give the forecast a basis it currently lacks.
Working the answers
- ACorrect
Most voters will see Grenier as insincere, and this principle says that perception makes them unlikely to vote for her. That supports the prediction that she won't win. It doesn't turn an election forecast into a certainty, but the question asks what most helps justify the reasoning, and A connects the stated evidence to the predicted result.
- B
If voters were unlikely to notice changes in a politician's positions, it would be harder to explain why Grenier's change would hurt her. B doesn't connect perceived insincerity to losing votes. It instead undercuts an earlier part of the pundit's story.
- C
This offers a reason voters might overlook her old position if they agree with her now. That could protect her from the criticism the pundit expects to damage her. It doesn't support the predicted rejection.
- D
We aren't told that voters believe Grenier understands their financial concerns. And a rule describing whom voters are likely to elect doesn't by itself show that Grenier is unlikely to be elected. We need a consequence of the negative perception the passage actually gives us.
- E
The pundit already says voters will consider Grenier insincere. We don't need another reason they might question sincerity; we need to know how that perception affects their votes. E also brings in disagreement with voters' beliefs, which isn't established here.
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