PrepTest 140, Section 2, Question 19
Viewers surveyed immediately after the televised political debate(43 more words not shown)
Which one of the following,(7 more words not shown)
- AMost people who(12 more words not shown)
- BMost people in(26 more words not shown)
- CThe people who(21 more words not shown)
- DMost of the(15 more words not shown)
- ELopez won the(8 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
Maybe Lopez's supporters liked Lopez's performance. If you ask committed supporters of either candidate who argued better, their prior loyalties might shape the answers.
But Lopez won the election after the debate. What if the debate helped make Lopez popular? A strong performance could impress previously undecided viewers or even people leaning toward Tanner, then help Lopez win. The later victory doesn't tell us that these viewers favored Lopez before hearing the arguments.
What we’re looking for
To undermine the claim of bias, I'd want to know what these surveyed viewers thought beforehand. If they had favored Tanner before the debate and nevertheless judged Lopez's arguments better afterward, prior favoritism toward Lopez would become a much less convincing explanation.
Working the answers
- A
People who didn't watch the debate aren't the surveyed viewers whose possible bias we're examining. Knowing that most voters didn't watch doesn't tell us whether the viewers already supported Lopez. It also doesn't establish what persuaded the nonviewers to vote as they did.
- B
The live audience could differ from the television audience. It might include more Tanner supporters, for example, or react differently to the candidates in person. A different group's judgment doesn't show that the surveyed television viewers lacked a prior preference for Lopez.
- C
More likely than nonviewers isn't the same as mostly supporting Tanner. Suppose 40 percent of viewers favored Tanner, compared with 20 percent of nonviewers. C would be true while most viewers still favored Lopez. The relative comparison also doesn't tell us what the surveyed viewers thought before the debate.
- DCorrect
Most of the viewers surveyed just before the debate expected to vote for Tanner. That directly undermines the suggestion that their favorable assessment of Lopez came from already favoring Lopez. A good debate performance becomes a plausible alternative explanation for their judgment.
We don't have to claim that every viewer changed a vote or that the debate alone caused the election result. The pre-debate preference is enough to weaken the proposed explanation based on prior pro-Lopez bias.
- E
A narrow election win still tells us little about this particular set of viewers' prior loyalties. The survey group could strongly favor Lopez even if the electorate as a whole were nearly evenly split. The margin doesn't supply the missing evidence about their pre-debate views.
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