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- Section 3, Question 6
Of the many test pilots who have flown(28 more words not shown)
The reasoning in which one(14 more words not shown)
- AAll of the(28 more words not shown)
- BMany of the(31 more words not shown)
- CNeither of the(38 more words not shown)
- DMany reviewers have(30 more words not shown)
- ENone of the(29 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
The next pilot will probably have an experience like the other pilots. That seems reasonable: many test pilots have flown this plane, and not one has found it difficult to operate.
Could tomorrow be different? Certainly. The next pilot might have less experience, the plane could develop a problem, or tomorrow's weather could be much worse. Those possibilities explain why the conclusion is a prediction, not a guarantee. The author says difficulty is unlikely, not impossible.
What we’re looking for
We need to match that reasoning: many people from a group have tried something, none has had a particular response, so the next person from that same group probably won't have that response. Keep both the unanimous past experience and the same-group prediction.
Working the answers
- A
The past experience is unanimous, but the prediction changes groups. Book reviewers found the novel well written; the conclusion concerns an average reader enjoying it. Our argument stays with test pilots from the evidence to the prediction. A also moves from a judgment about writing quality to enjoyment, which needn't be the same reaction.
- B
Many reviewers enjoyed the book, but that doesn't say all the reviewers did. Some could have found it boring. It also predicts a reaction from most purchasers, rather than from one additional member of the reviewer group. Both the evidence and the target of the prediction differ from the original.
- C
Here the evidence concerns just two reviewers, specifically two who enjoyed the book. We don't have the original's broad experience of many people with no exceptions. The prediction about an upcoming review resembles the next-pilot prediction, but the evidence supporting it is much narrower.
- DCorrect
Many reviewers have read the novel, corresponding to the many test pilots who flew the plane. None enjoyed it, just as none of the pilots found the plane difficult. Now another reviewer is about to read it, and the author predicts that she is unlikely to enjoy it.
The actual response can be negative or positive; what matters is the relationship. No one in the earlier group had this response, so the next member probably won't either. D preserves that reasoning without changing the population.
- E
The evidence concerns reviewers, but the conclusion extends to anyone in the general public. That's a wider group, and the conclusion concerns whether anyone in it will be offended. The original predicts the experience of one additional test pilot. It doesn't generalize to everyone who might operate a plane.
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