PrepTest 135, Section 4, Question 14
Geographer: Because tropical storms require heat and moisture,(74 more words not shown)
Which one of the following(10 more words not shown)
- ATropical storms are(8 more words not shown)
- BContrary to early(16 more words not shown)
- CIf global warming(11 more words not shown)
- DInstabilities in wind(14 more words not shown)
- EGlobal warming probably(9 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
The early prediction makes sense at first: tropical storms need heat and moisture, warmer ocean surfaces favor them, and global warming would encourage those temperatures. It's reasonable to wonder whether that means more frequent, more intense storms.
The geographer says to slow down. Temperature isn't the only thing affecting storm development. Other factors, including instabilities in wind flow, are likely to work against the warming effect. One influence pushing toward more storms doesn't settle the result when other influences push back.
What we’re looking for
That's the response we're identifying in this main-conclusion question. The geographer thinks the early prediction probably won't come true. The facts about warm water explain why people made the prediction; the facts about other factors explain why the geographer doubts it. We don't need to decide the real-world science to separate those roles.
Working the answers
- A
This is part of the starting explanation for the early prediction. The geographer accepts that warm ocean surfaces favor storm formation, then argues that other factors are likely to counteract the effect. A leaves out the point the argument ultimately makes.
- B
The presence of other factors helps explain the geographer's conclusion, but the conclusion goes beyond saying that multiple factors exist. It predicts that global warming probably won't produce the expected increase. Also, the passage doesn't establish that the early discussions denied the existence of every other influence.
- C
Reversing global warming is a new scenario. The geographer discusses what warming probably will not produce, not what reversing it would do. We cannot replace the stated conclusion with this different prediction.
- D
This describes a proposed reason to doubt the early forecast: a counteracting effect from wind-flow instabilities. It isn't the overall conclusion. It also replaces the passage's tentative 'likely' with the stronger 'will.'
- ECorrect
Global warming probably won't produce more frequent and intense tropical storms. That restates the claim that the early prediction is unlikely to be borne out. 'Probably' matters: the geographer is expressing a supported forecast, not a guarantee that warming can never increase storms.
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