PrepTest 132, Section 4, Question 21
It is virtually certain that the government contract(45 more words not shown)
The argument proceeds(1 more words not shown)
- Aconcluding that it(15 more words not shown)
- Binferring, from a(16 more words not shown)
- Crefuting a claim(14 more words not shown)
- Dpredicting a future(11 more words not shown)
- Einferring a claim(12 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
Cartwright is out. That leaves Phoenix as the overwhelmingly likely winner.
The opening doesn't make the two-company choice absolutely certain. “Virtually certain” leaves a little room for some other outcome. The conclusion respects that uncertainty by saying Phoenix's victory is “almost inevitable,” rather than guaranteed. We don't need to invent a flaw here; we just need to describe the reasoning.
What we’re looking for
The author starts with two probable alternatives, rules one out, and concludes that the other is extremely likely. For the method question, follow that direction: Cartwright's rejection is the evidence; Phoenix's likely victory is the conclusion.
Working the answers
- ACorrect
The event is Phoenix receiving the contract. The only probable alternative is Cartwright receiving it. Once the government rules Cartwright out, the author concludes that Phoenix is extremely likely to get the job. A captures both the elimination and the qualified prediction.
- B
This goes from one company's getting the contract to the other company's not getting it. Our argument goes the other way: the government won't award it to Cartwright, so Phoenix will probably win. Cartwright's rejection is a premise, not something inferred from Phoenix's victory.
- C
The author isn't refuting a claim that an event is inevitable. The author is arguing that an event is almost inevitable. C would fit someone raising another possible winner to challenge a prediction; here, the author eliminates the main competing winner to support the prediction.
- D
No past pattern is given. The argument doesn't say Phoenix won similar contracts before and therefore will win again. It relies on the likely choices for this particular contract and the government's decision to eliminate one of them.
- E
The passage uses probability language, but it doesn't apply a general statistical statement to this case. We aren't told, for example, what proportion of highway contracts Phoenix usually wins. The evidence concerns the alternatives for this one contract.
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