PrepTest 131, Section 1, Question 11
Some statisticians believe that the method called extreme(65 more words not shown)
Which one of the following(8 more words not shown)
- AEVT is, in(18 more words not shown)
- BEVT fits the(15 more words not shown)
- CAccording to the(21 more words not shown)
- DGiven the results(21 more words not shown)
- ETraditional statistical methods(13 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
EVT seems to do better on the upper end of human life spans. The traditional methods predict some lives beyond 130 years, while EVT places the probable limit between 113 and 124. The observed record has not exceeded EVT's upper limits.
But how much does that tell us about the whole method? Imagine a method that gets the maximum age about right but predicts that the average person lives only 15 years. Success at the endpoint would not make that method reliable across the board. We have evidence about one feature of the data, not every possible use of the tool.
What we’re looking for
For the inference, stay with that limited advantage: EVT's predicted upper limits fit the highest observed life spans better. We should not turn that into a claim that EVT is generally superior or that future humans can never live longer.
Working the answers
- A
“In general” reaches beyond the comparison we were given. The passage evaluates the methods against observed maximum human life spans, not against every kind of future trend. One successful application does not establish general superiority.
- BCorrect
This stays with the highest observed human life spans. The traditional methods predict lives beyond 130, while EVT's lower predicted maximum is consistent with the fact that no one has exceeded its upper limits. That gives EVT a closer fit to this observed feature of the data. B does not claim that it must be the better method in every respect.
- C
A probable limit derived from statistical analysis is not proof of physical impossibility. The passage does not identify a biological barrier making life beyond 124 impossible. Its cautious word “probably” cannot support C's absolute conclusion.
- D
A model of the observed record does not tell us that attempts to change that record are pointless. Future research or technology might extend life beyond current experience. Nothing here establishes that such research cannot succeed.
- E
Replacing traditional methods requires a much broader evaluation. EVT could handle this particular question well while traditional methods remain useful for other questions. The passage gives one comparison, not a reason to discard the other tools.
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