PrepTest 130, Section 4, Question 21
The odds of winning any major lottery jackpot(56 more words not shown)
Which one of the following(8 more words not shown)
- AMost people who(33 more words not shown)
- BVery few people(16 more words not shown)
- CIf it were(19 more words not shown)
- DBecoming aware of(23 more words not shown)
- EAt least some(22 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
Seeing an ordinary person celebrate a lottery win could make someone think, “That could be me.” I can understand the proposed effect. If winners keep appearing in the news, winning might start to feel more common than it is.
But that is the connection we need to examine. The premises establish that winners get attention and that people become aware of heavily covered events. Awareness of winners is not itself an estimate of one's own chances. Someone could see the coverage and still understand that winning is extremely unlikely.
What we’re looking for
The same distinction would matter if someone saw repeated reports of plane crashes or crimes. Frequent exposure to reports might distort the person's sense of the event's frequency, but we would need that effect rather than simply the exposure. For the required assumption, look for a link between becoming aware of lottery winners and misjudging one's own odds.
Working the answers
- A
The argument does not require the coverage to downplay the odds against winning. A report could state the odds accurately while the vivid winner's story still distorted a viewer's estimate. A adds a particular feature of the coverage that the proposed effect does not need.
- B
Lottery winners need not be almost the only people receiving heavy media attention. Athletes, entertainers, or other people could also receive extensive coverage. Their presence in the news would not eliminate the possible effect of stories about lottery winners.
- C
Media coverage can contribute to an error without being necessary for that error. People might overestimate their chances because of wishful thinking or another source even without the coverage. The argument needs the proposed effect of awareness; it does not need most ticket buyers to become accurate estimators whenever that media influence is absent.
- DCorrect
At least some people must misjudge their own chances as a result of becoming aware of winners. Otherwise, the facts about media attention and public awareness would provide no support for the conclusion about mistaken odds estimates.
D is only a minimum connection. It does not by itself establish that many people greatly overestimate their chances. But a required assumption need not prove the whole conclusion; this link must be present for the author's stated reasoning to work.
- E
Some heavily influenced people might still assess their lottery chances correctly. That is compatible with the conclusion, but the argument does not require such exceptions to exist. It concerns the people whose estimates are distorted, not a guarantee that another group resists that particular influence.
More Necessary Assumption questions
Learn the LSAT our way
Our platform drills Necessary Assumption questions at your level and adjusts as you improve.