PrepTest 128, Section 2, Question 19
Criminologist: According to a countrywide tabulation of all(54 more words not shown)
Which one of the following,(14 more words not shown)
- ANot all of(15 more words not shown)
- BMost crimes committed(10 more words not shown)
- CThe total annual(24 more words not shown)
- DIn the series(19 more words not shown)
- EOf crimes committed(23 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
More reported crime isn't necessarily more crime. A police tabulation counts the crimes people report. If people become more willing to contact the police, the count can increase even when the underlying number of crimes does not.
The two measures here seem to pull in opposite directions: police reports show a rising crime rate per 100,000 people, while the independent surveys suggest fewer crimes in total. Before choosing an explanation, I would also consider whether the surveys capture people's experiences accurately and whether the samples adequately represent the country. Random selection helps, but it doesn't tell us everything about the surveys.
What we’re looking for
The question asks us to resolve the discrepancy. My strongest prediction is a change in reporting: perhaps a larger share of crimes now reaches the police. That would give us a way for the police figures to rise without assuming that the surveys must be wrong about the underlying trend.
Working the answers
- A
A random sample can include people who haven't been crime victims. That fact alone doesn't explain why the survey evidence suggests a decline while the police figures rise. We need something connecting the two different trends, not merely a description of who might be in the sample.
- B
Underreporting means police records omit crimes, but we need to know whether the reporting proportion changed. If the same share went unreported throughout the period, that would not itself explain reports rising while actual crime fell. B gives a general level of underreporting, not the needed change over time.
- C
This says the total rose while the rate relative to population fell. Those are the opposite directions from the discrepancy described: the police rate rose while the surveys suggest the total fell. C doesn't reconcile the actual findings.
- D
Inaccurate descriptions don't necessarily mean crimes were omitted or that the errors make recent years appear safer than earlier years. A respondent could misdescribe a crime's details while still reporting that it occurred. Without the direction or timing of the errors, D doesn't explain the specific trends.
- ECorrect
A larger reporting proportion can make police reports rise even as actual crime falls. Suppose the population stays at 100,000. Twenty years ago, 100 crimes occurred and 10 percent were reported, giving the police 10 reports. Recently, 50 crimes occurred and 50 percent were reported, giving the police 25 reports.
Actual crime has fallen from 100 to 50, but the reported rate has risen from 10 to 25 per 100,000 people. That fits both findings. The example isn't a claim about the actual numbers; it demonstrates how the reporting change can reconcile the surveys with the police data.
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