PrepTest 127, Section 3, Question 24
The local radio station will not win the(63 more words not shown)
The reasoning in which one(12 more words not shown)
- AEvery swan I(10 more words not shown)
- BA fair coin(18 more words not shown)
- CAll lions are(12 more words not shown)
- DRecently stock prices(15 more words not shown)
- EOnly trained swimmers(18 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
The station has never finished better than fifth in ten years. That gives us a reason to be skeptical about a win this year, but I would initially ask what has changed. A poor past result doesn't rule out an improved station.
The argument partly answers that question. The manager hasn't changed the musical format or key personnel, while competitors have adapted to changing tastes and recruited strong radio personalities. So the forecast is based on a continuing pattern, with additional reasons to expect continuity.
What we’re looking for
Could something else improve the station's ratings? Perhaps it changed its marketing or reduced advertisements, making people more willing to listen. Those possibilities keep the prediction from being certain. Still, the reasoning question asks us to match the method: past results are used to predict the result in the next particular instance. Here, the next instance is this year's ratings race.
Working the answers
- A
Observed white swans are used to draw a conclusion about all swans. Our argument predicts one coming outcome, this year's result, rather than declaring how every ratings race will end. A closer match would predict that the next swan observed will be white. The actual answer's universal conclusion changes the scope.
- B
This also predicts the next event from a past streak, so it deserves a close look. But the coin is explicitly fair and fairly flipped. The earlier heads do not make heads more likely on the next independent flip. That supplies a reason the run should not guide the prediction. The radio argument instead offers reasons to expect the station's past pattern to continue.
- C
This applies a general rule, all lions are mammals, to a particular lion. If Leo is a lion, the rule settles the result. The radio argument has an observed history and a forecast; it has no universal rule guaranteeing that every poorly rated station must lose next time.
- DCorrect
The past pattern is lower stock prices on Mondays, corresponding to the station's history of poor ratings. The prediction concerns the coming Monday, corresponding to this year's ratings race. Both project an observed pattern onto the next relevant occasion.
D doesn't reproduce the extra details about unchanged programming and competitors. It nonetheless matches the central movement from past results to a particular future result better than A's claim about all cases or B's explicitly fair random process.
- E
Trained swimming is a requirement for being a lifeguard. The next person who fills that role must meet the requirement. That is applying a rule about every member of a category, not forecasting a result because similar results have occurred in the past.
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