PrepTest 125, Section 4, Question 16
Max: Although doing so would be very costly,(60 more words not shown)
Max's argument is most vulnerable(9 more words not shown)
- AIt takes for(23 more words not shown)
- BIt takes for(19 more words not shown)
- CIt overlooks the(24 more words not shown)
- DIt overlooks the(11 more words not shown)
- EIt takes for(19 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
How much of Earth's overcrowding would moving people to the Moon actually relieve?
Imagine Earth had 20 billion people and three billion moved to the Moon. That could make a difference, but the population left on Earth could keep growing. We would want to know how many people could move and how that number compares with the growth. Those are hypothetical numbers, not population predictions. They help us see that building some colonies isn't automatically a complete answer to overcrowding.
Temporary relief could still count as relief, though. We shouldn't demand a permanent cure when Max hasn't promised one. There's a more basic question before we even reach that issue: would the colonies get built?
Max says the economic incentive will grow. But grow enough? Building housing on Earth could become more expensive while building it on the Moon remained far more expensive. A stronger incentive than we have today isn't necessarily an incentive strong enough to justify this enormous project.
What we’re looking for
The flaw question could target either the projected relief or the near-certainty of construction. I'd keep both concerns in mind. Max needs more than an incentive moving in the right direction to establish that the project will almost certainly happen.
Working the answers
- ACorrect
This targets the construction problem. Max assumes the growing incentive will become large enough to bring about a project he has already described as very costly. But the incentive could increase and still fall short of what would make the project worth undertaking. 'More reason than before' doesn't establish 'enough reason to do it.'
- B
Max predicts one proposed way of relieving overcrowding. He doesn't say it is the only possible way. Other responses could exist alongside Moon colonies, so we shouldn't turn his prediction into an exclusive claim the argument never makes.
- C
People could build colonies for some other reason. That possibility is compatible with the prediction that colonies will be built; it doesn't expose why this particular economic argument fails to establish the prediction. Max doesn't need overcrowding to be the only possible motive for construction.
- D
Crowding on the Moon is different from crowding on Earth. Moving people could reduce Earth's crowding even if their new settlements became crowded themselves. That might create another problem, but it doesn't directly refute the claimed relief on Earth. Our concern is whether the proposed construction and movement will produce that relief.
- E
Some people could already want to live on the Moon before Earth became severely crowded. Max doesn't need everyone to lack that preference. The argument is about whether the economic incentive will lead to construction, not whether anybody could desire Moon living for another reason.
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