PrepTest 120, Section 4, Question 26
The number of applications for admission reported by(45 more words not shown)
Each of the following, if(5 more words not shown)
- AThe number of(25 more words not shown)
- BThe average age(21 more words not shown)
- CThe number of(23 more words not shown)
- DThe number of(24 more words not shown)
- EThe percentage of(24 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
A drop in applications to Ph.D. programs doesn't necessarily mean less interest in an art-history career. What if graduates are going straight to work for museums or collectors? More school isn't the only conceivable route into the field.
Or perhaps they're studying elsewhere. These figures concern North American programs. A graduate who pursues art history in Europe could disappear from this count without losing interest in the subject.
What we’re looking for
The author moves from reported applications to a claim about recent North American graduates' career interests. We need to keep the thing counted separate from the thing we're trying to measure. The question is a weaken EXCEPT: four answers challenge that connection, and one doesn't. I'd expect several ways the application count could fall while interest in the career remained strong.
Working the answers
- A
Fewer programs reported their application data. The reported total could therefore fall even if the programs collectively received just as many applications. That challenges the evidence for declining interest: we may be seeing a change in how much data was collected, not a change in what graduates want to do.
- BCorrect
A rising average age doesn't explain why the application total fell without a decline in recent graduates' interest. It could occur with many different changes in who applies. Nor does being older tell us that someone is studying for pleasure instead of pursuing a career, or that the person couldn't be a recent graduate. B gives us a change in age without the needed challenge to the author's inference.
- C
More errors make the reported application figures a less secure basis for the conclusion. We aren't told which direction every error goes, so this doesn't establish that the true total rose. But it gives us a reason to question whether the apparent decline is reliable evidence of a change in interest.
- D
This matches the direct-to-work prediction. More employers will hire people for art-history jobs without a Ph.D. Graduates could therefore skip these programs while continuing to choose the career. Fewer applications wouldn't tell us that interest in the field had fallen.
- E
This is easy to dismiss because the conclusion concerns North American graduates. But the application total includes people from outside North America, so a change in that group can change the total.
Suppose there were 100 applications: 50 from North America and 50 from elsewhere. If the 50 outside applications disappeared, the total would fall to 50 even though the number from North America stayed the same. The outside share would fall too, just as E describes. The exact figures are illustrative, but they show why a decline in the overall total needn't reflect declining interest among the group named in the conclusion.
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