PrepTest 119, Section 4, Question 5
Psychologist: There are theories that posit completely different(41 more words not shown)
Which one of the following(9 more words not shown)
- AFreudian theories have(16 more words not shown)
- BA psychological theory(11 more words not shown)
- CFreudian theory has(12 more words not shown)
- DMeasuring the predictive(16 more words not shown)
- EScientific theories become(12 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
Better at predicting doesn't automatically mean we should throw the other theory away.
Let's accept the psychologist's evidence: some alternatives predict human behavior more successfully than Freudian theories do. That doesn't establish that either account has identified the true causes of behavior. And even a less successful theory might still have some use.
Imagine owning two T-shirts and liking one better. Does that mean the other belongs in the trash? Maybe there are still occasions when you'd want it. In the same way, saying one theory predicts better doesn't by itself explain why we should abandon the other in its favor. The psychologist needs a reason to make that choice.
What we’re looking for
We're asked for an assumption the argument needs. My initial focus is the recommendation to discard the less successful theory: why must we give it up just because an alternative does better? Look for an unstated connection between the comparison we're given and the recommendation it is supposed to support.
Working the answers
- A
The psychologist needn't assume Freud's suggestions were interesting or have been shown false. The argument grants that other theories predict better, then recommends preferring them. That comparison doesn't require every less successful theory to have been disproved.
- BCorrect
This identifies a more basic connection than my initial concern about throwing the old theory away. The psychologist treats greater predictive success as a reason to prefer one theory scientifically. B supplies that connection: better prediction makes the alternative scientifically preferable.
If better prediction didn't make a theory preferable, why would the comparison justify choosing the alternatives? The argument relies on that standard of preference, even though my first reaction focused on whether the less successful theory might still have some value.
- C
Less success than a competitor isn't necessarily little success. Imagine Freudian theory predicting correctly 70 percent of the time and another theory succeeding 90 percent of the time. Those hypothetical numbers fit the stated comparison, but 70 percent needn't count as little success. The argument needs a relative advantage, not an assumption that Freud predicts badly in absolute terms.
- D
This concerns how predictive success is measured. We might test a theory by making predictions and checking what people actually do, without comparing it with another theory during that measurement. The argument compares the results; it doesn't require this particular method of obtaining them.
- E
Complexity isn't the reason offered for abandoning Freud. The psychologist says to prefer the alternatives regardless of how suggestive or complex Freudian theories are. E would make excessive complexity a practical problem, while the argument's stated basis for preference is greater predictive success.
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