PrepTest 117, Section 4, Question 5
Barr: The National Tea Association cites tea's recent(58 more words not shown)
Which one of the following,(7 more words not shown)
- AThe National Tea(17 more words not shown)
- BA survey by(20 more words not shown)
- CThe Survey Group(9 more words not shown)
- DThe stores from(20 more words not shown)
- ETea has been(17 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
Twenty years isn't forever.
First, I wouldn't automatically accept the Tea Association's evidence. More advertisements could mean someone paid for more advertising. A magazine might feature tea because it fits a fashionable subject. Neither fact by itself tells us that more people are buying it.
Barr responds with actual sales data, which sounds more useful. But which stores were tracked? Do they represent where people across the country buy tea? A neutral company can still collect data from a limited set of stores.
What we’re looking for
There is also a time problem. Unchanged sales over the past 20 years don't establish that tea is no more popular than it ever was. Perhaps it was much less popular a century ago. For the weaken question, my first prediction is evidence about that earlier period. But either gap is worth keeping in mind: the data must cover the people and the time span the conclusion covers.
Working the answers
- A
A plan for a future survey tells us no results. It could eventually support Barr or challenge Barr. Announcing it doesn't now show that tea has become more popular or that the existing sales figures are misleading.
- B
Being willing to try a new type of tea isn't the same as buying more tea. I might accept a small sample in a store without ever purchasing a box. People who already drink tea could also try a different kind while buying the same total amount. This doesn't establish an increase in tea's popularity.
- C
The source of the Survey Group's funding doesn't identify an error in its data or establish a change in tea consumption. We are told the group is neutral. Naming consumer advocacy groups doesn't show that the stores it studied represent a growing market or that tea is more popular.
- DCorrect
This addresses the sample concern rather than my prediction about the earlier time period. Every store was in the same small region. Sales there could stay flat while sales elsewhere rose.
Studying numerous stores isn't enough if all of them share a location that may behave differently from the broader market. Barr uses those stores to make an unrestricted claim about tea's popularity. D shows why the evidence might fail to represent that larger picture. It doesn't prove that popularity increased; it gives us a concrete reason the survey could miss an increase.
- E
This explains why tea might appear in more advertising: the Tea Association helped pay for the campaign. It doesn't give the campaign's sales results. Even an efficiently run campaign doesn't, by itself, establish that tea became more popular. E therefore doesn't undermine Barr's reliance on unchanged sales; it can instead help explain the Association's visibility evidence without assuming greater popularity.
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