PrepTest 117, Section 2, Question 14
The economy is doing badly.(58 more words not shown)
Which one of the following(9 more words not shown)
- AIf car sales(16 more words not shown)
- BIf the economy(17 more words not shown)
- CIf the real(16 more words not shown)
- DIf the economy(22 more words not shown)
- EThe bad condition(17 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
Two weak markets are evidence of trouble. Are they enough to tell us about the whole economy?
The author points to a real estate slump and very low car sales. I can see why those would cause concern. But perhaps employment is strong, or other parts of the economy are thriving. The passage doesn't call either weak market alone decisive. Its point is that the two slumps together make a bad economy quite probable.
What we’re looking for
The question asks what this information most strongly supports, so we need to work within that assessment rather than continue arguing with it. My starting thought is the author's conclusion: the combined evidence points toward a weak economy. Keep both parts and the degree of certainty. The claim is about what is likely, not a guarantee, and it doesn't say these are the only ways an economy can do badly.
Working the answers
- A
This drops half of the author's combined evidence. The passage allows one slump to coexist with a healthy economy, and bases its probability judgment on the two occurring together. It hasn't given us that same judgment from low car sales alone. A healthy economy could still have a weak car market.
- B
An economy could be doing badly for another reason. Perhaps a severe employment problem or a trade problem is hurting it while both of these markets remain healthy. The author identifies the two slumps as evidence of a bad economy, not as conditions that every bad economy must contain.
- C
A healthy real estate market doesn't settle what is happening elsewhere. Employment could be weak, for example. The passage says that without one of the slumps a healthy economy would be possible. Possible isn't the same as likely, so C adds a judgment that wasn't given.
- DCorrect
This best fits the author's assessment of the two slumps occurring together. The author treats that combination as a strong sign of an unhealthy economy. D correspondingly treats it as an unlikely combination in a healthy economy.
Keep the word 'unlikely.' D doesn't say the two slumps are impossible when the economy is healthy. It preserves the probabilistic character of the passage instead of turning the economic signs into an exceptionless rule.
- E
Both markets needn't be doing badly whenever the whole economy is doing badly. The two slumps together are the author's basis for this assessment, but other problems could produce a weak economy too. E turns one combination of warning signs into a claim about what must always accompany economic trouble.
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