PrepTest 115, Section 2, Question 5
We are taught that pedestrians should cross the(65 more words not shown)
Which one of the following,(11 more words not shown)
- AFar more pedestrians(5 more words not shown)
- BSome people jaywalk(6 more words not shown)
- CDrivers are often(6 more words not shown)
- DTraffic laws in(22 more words not shown)
- EGood drivers anticipate(10 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
How many people cross each way?
I can see why crossing at a corner might be safer. Drivers are more likely to expect a pedestrian there. But then we get a count of deaths, and a count doesn't tell us the risk faced by one person crossing. If vastly more people use corners, corners could have more deaths even while each crossing is safer.
Imagine 100,000 people crossing at corners, with ten deaths, and 1,000 jaywalking, with two deaths. More people died at corners: ten versus two. Yet the death rate was lower there: one in 10,000 versus one in 500. Those are invented numbers, but they show how the two claims can fit together.
Comparing total deaths in a large population with deaths in a small population has the same problem. Before declaring one more dangerous, we'd want the number of people exposed to the risk. Here, that means the number crossing at corners versus elsewhere.
What we’re looking for
The question asks us to explain the surprising statistic. My prediction is that many more pedestrians cross at corners. That would let the larger total coexist with the lower individual risk.
Working the answers
- ACorrect
Far more pedestrians cross at corners, so the two death totals come from very different numbers of people. A lower death rate applied to a much larger group can produce more deaths overall. The numerical example shows exactly how. This resolves the surprise without requiring us to abandon the idea that crossing at a corner is safer.
- B
Avoiding heavy traffic could make those particular instances of jaywalking less dangerous. But this tells us about only some people and gives us no sense of how common that behavior is or how it compares with crossings at corners. It doesn't explain the overall death totals nearly as well as A, which directly addresses the size of the two groups.
- C
Knowing the jaywalking laws and avoiding a collision aren't the same thing. An unfamiliar driver might still watch carefully for pedestrians, and a driver who knows the law might still fail to see one. C doesn't explain why the total deaths are higher at corners.
- D
Having the right of way doesn't guarantee that a driver sees you or stops in time. The law could protect pedestrians crossing either way while actual risks and death totals differ. We need to explain the statistic, not establish who legally has priority.
- E
This concerns good drivers. Other drivers may still be more alert to pedestrians at corners than to jaywalkers, so E doesn't establish equal safety across all encounters. It also leaves unanswered the key question about the statistic: how many pedestrians cross in each way?
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