PrepTest 111, Section 3, Question 21

What we’re looking for

Working the answers

• A
  Correct

  This starts with the kind of bill we have: no leader of a major party supports it. It then tells us that most bills in that group have failed to pass. That gives the prediction a basis beyond merely reporting the leaders' opinions.

  “Most” doesn't make failure certain, and it doesn't by itself establish the author's full confidence that this bill will almost surely fail. It still adds support in the needed direction. The actual answer can strengthen the argument without being as decisive as my initial prediction.

• B

  This starts with failed bills and reports something about their support. We need to start with this bill's lack of leadership support and assess its chance of failing. B also concerns support from any party member, not specifically party leaders. We know the leaders oppose this bill; we don't know that no ordinary member supports it.

• C

  The leaders don't endorse the bill, so the stated condition isn't met. Knowing that their endorsement would ensure passage doesn't tell us what happens without it. Other members might still pass the bill. C gives a route to success without showing that the missing route makes failure likely.

• D

  A bill can lack unanimous support while still having support from several leaders. Here, every leader opposes the bill. A history of bills passing with some leaders on their side doesn't show what usually happens when none are on their side.

• E

  This is tempting, but it asks about the wrong group. Most successful bills having a leader's support doesn't tell us what percentage of unsupported bills succeed.

  Suppose ninety supported bills pass and ten unsupported bills pass, with no unsupported bills failing. Most passed bills had support, so E would be true. Yet every unsupported bill passed. To assess this bill, A gives us the relevant comparison: among bills without leadership support, most failed.