PrepTest 107, Section 4, Question 9
Because of increases in the price of oil(54 more words not shown)
The prediction that ends the(18 more words not shown)
- Athe price of(22 more words not shown)
- Bthe price of(20 more words not shown)
- Cthe cost of(22 more words not shown)
- Dthe cost of(26 more words not shown)
- Ethe use of(19 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
They already paid for the gas equipment. Does that mean sticking with gas will keep being the best deal?
What if oil gets much cheaper? What if natural gas becomes expensive? Or what if homeowners still have their old oil equipment and can switch back without buying much? Paying for one setup in the past doesn't prevent a different setup from making sense in the future.
Imagine spending $100 on equipment, then facing a $1,000 fuel cost that could be avoided by switching. Those are hypothetical numbers, but they show why the earlier investment alone needn't decide the next choice. We'd want to compare the cost of switching back with what people would save afterward.
What we’re looking for
The question asks us to weaken the prediction that a significant return to oil is unlikely. I'd look for old oil equipment still being usable, cheaper oil, or more expensive natural gas. Any of those could undermine the idea that the previous equipment purchase keeps people with gas.
Working the answers
- A
Natural gas prices are unchanged, and new gas equipment is cheaper. That doesn't give homeowners a reason to go back to oil. The equipment they already bought is in place anyway; a lower price for another gas setup doesn't make an oil setup more attractive.
- B
Watch what has become expensive: gas equipment, not gas itself. These homeowners already bought that equipment when they switched. A rise in its current purchase price doesn't establish a higher fuel bill for their existing system. Meanwhile, unchanged oil prices don't supply a new reason to return to oil.
- C
Cheaper oil could make a return more attractive, but a return to 1970 prices doesn't tell us how oil now compares with natural gas. The other change is a fall in the cost of gas equipment, which doesn't lower the cost of switching back to oil. C leaves both the present fuel comparison and the oil-equipment expense unsettled.
- DCorrect
Both parts make switching back easier to justify. Oil equipment has become much cheaper, reducing the cost of changing systems. Heating with oil is also cheaper than heating with gas, giving homeowners a reason to make that change.
Now the earlier investment in gas equipment might be outweighed by future savings. D doesn't guarantee that everyone will switch, but it directly challenges the reason offered for predicting that a substantial switch is unlikely.
- E
Continued decline in oil use fits the prediction rather than challenging it. Oil prices have fallen, but that hasn't produced a return to oil during the period described. Nor does comparison with 1970 prices tell us whether oil is now cheaper than natural gas. E supplies no comparable reason to expect a reversal.
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