PrepTest 107, Section 3, Question 5
The chances that tropical storms will develop in(82 more words not shown)
The statements above, if true,(9 more words not shown)
- AThere are likely(18 more words not shown)
- BTropical storms can(10 more words not shown)
- CThe number of(24 more words not shown)
- DThe ferocity of(15 more words not shown)
- EAny increase in(20 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
We can connect these facts. More carbon dioxide leads to more bodies of water reaching the stated temperature condition, and that condition increases the chance of tropical storms.
Keep the middle step precise. The first sentence doesn't say that every tiny increase in water temperature produces more storms. It describes water exceeding 26 degrees Celsius down to about 60 meters. Warming from 24 to 25 degrees would not, on its own, meet that condition. The second sentence takes care of this: if atmospheric carbon dioxide keeps increasing, more large bodies of water will eventually cross the specified threshold.
What happens in those areas? The chance of a tropical storm increases. That gives us a sensible prediction for the question asking what the facts most strongly support: continued growth in atmospheric carbon dioxide is likely to mean more tropical storms.
What we’re looking for
“Likely” matters. An increased chance is not a guarantee that a storm will form in every affected area. We're carrying the passage's claim about probability through the connection, not turning it into certainty.
Working the answers
- ACorrect
Continued increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide are likely to bring more tropical storms. Follow the connection: more carbon dioxide, warmer water, more bodies of water meeting the specified condition, and greater chances of storms in those areas. A combines the two facts without claiming that every affected area must experience a storm.
- B
There are two problems. First, the passage concerns water temperature, not air temperature. Second, it says the specified condition increases the chance of a storm. That does not make the condition the only way a tropical storm can occur. B changes both the subject of the temperature measurement and the strength of the relationship.
- C
We have a prediction about the future compared with today, not a record of all past temperatures. More bodies of water could cross the threshold in the future even if there were an earlier period when still more crossed it. Nothing establishes that today's number is the highest ever.
- D
Ferocity means how intense the storms are. The passage discusses their chances of forming, not how powerful they become. It gives us no basis for declaring that carbon dioxide has no effect on storm intensity. We cannot infer “no effect” from the passage's silence about that issue.
- E
This changes the direction of the proposed effect. We're told that increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide will raise water temperatures. E says raising ocean temperatures will increase atmospheric carbon dioxide. Evidence for the first connection does not establish the second.
It also applies to any temperature increase, a broad claim the passage never makes. But the central problem is the new claim about what causes carbon dioxide to increase, not the tropical-storm threshold.
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