PrepTest 106, Section 1, Question 1
A student has taken twelve courses and received(25 more words not shown)
Each of the following, if(5 more words not shown)
- AThe student previously(14 more words not shown)
- BThe twelve courses(8 more words not shown)
- CThe student previously(9 more words not shown)
- DThe student received(10 more words not shown)
- EThe current course(16 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
A B is a reasonable guess, but is this course like the others? A student might usually get Bs in political science and struggle whenever she takes an elective in a different field. If this new course is computer science, the overall record might not tell the whole story.
Even the record is less specific than it first sounds. A majority of twelve means at least seven, not necessarily twelve. Five grades could have been something other than B. And this course could be much harder, much easier, or taken under different circumstances. Any of those changes could make the past a less useful guide.
What we’re looking for
The question asks which choice does not strengthen the prediction. Four should give us more reason to expect another B; one won't. I'd look for the strengthen choices to make the record more consistent or show that the current situation resembles the earlier ones. We're predicting this particular grade, not simply whether the student will do well.
Working the answers
- ACorrect
Now something relevant has changed: the student is getting help from several outstanding students. That could improve her performance beyond the Bs she earned studying alone. An A would be a good result for her, but it would make the argument's prediction of a B wrong.
We don't have to guarantee an A or show that tutoring always works. This choice gives us no reason to expect the same grade as before and instead supplies a reason the result might change. That's the exception we need.
- B
This helps answer our concern about a narrow course history. The twelve courses covered varied subject matter, so the record is less easily explained by success in just one subject. That makes it a better basis for predicting another B across courses. It doesn't prove this particular course will resemble the others in every respect, but a strengthener doesn't need to do that.
- C
One aspect of the student's study routine remains the same. That is modest support for using past performance as a guide: the location hasn't changed in a way that might affect studying. Continuing to study in the library doesn't guarantee a B, but it gives the argument a little more continuity between past and present.
- D
Eleven Bs out of twelve is a more consistent record than the minimum seven that “a majority” allowed. A prediction based on the usual result becomes stronger when that result occurred almost every time. There can still be an exception; the conclusion only says a B is probable.
- E
The current course builds on one in which she earned a B. That gives us a specific connection between this class and the earlier record, rather than relying only on an average across potentially unrelated subjects. The continuation could still be different in difficulty, but this fact supports expecting similar performance.
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