PrepTest 105, Section 2, Question 18
In recent years the climate has been generally(73 more words not shown)
Which one of the following,(13 more words not shown)
- ACrop yields in(20 more words not shown)
- BAny increases in(19 more words not shown)
- CThe climate in(22 more words not shown)
- DIn many parts(22 more words not shown)
- EThe recent climate(13 more words not shown)
Reading the argument
If warmer, wetter periods have gone with bigger harvests, why are scientists predicting smaller harvests when that weather becomes normal?
Notice what “those periods” refers to: the warmer, more humid stretches. The prediction is that those conditions will become common, not that the region will get colder. That's why the expected decline is surprising.
Still, temperature and humidity aren't the only things that affect crops. What if the soil becomes depleted? What if insects thrive in the new conditions and eat the plants? A change can help crops in one way while hurting them in another. Past good harvests don't promise that every consequence of a lasting climate change will be good.
What we’re looking for
The question asks us to explain the apparent conflict. We need a reason yields could fall despite the warmer, wetter weather. We can accept the earlier good harvests and the future prediction together if something else offsets the benefit.
Working the answers
- A
Southern Asia's steady yields don't explain northern Asia's predicted decline. Even if different regions respond differently to similar weather changes, we still need to know why the northern region's crops would do worse. This gives us another outcome, not a cause of the outcome we're trying to explain.
- B
This links the weather change to more of something plants need. That doesn't supply a reason the crop yields would fall. It may give us an additional reason to expect growth, though saying carbon dioxide is vital doesn't by itself prove that every increase helps. Either way, there is no crop-damaging effect here to resolve our puzzle.
- CCorrect
The cool, dry climate has been keeping many crop pests from establishing populations. That protection could disappear as the region stays warmer and wetter. The new conditions might benefit the crops directly while also allowing insects to settle in and damage them.
This also helps explain why short warmer periods and a lasting change could have different results. A brief favorable stretch need not establish the pest populations that a persistently favorable climate could support. The answer doesn't guarantee swarms or the destruction of every crop. It supplies a plausible reason the long-term yields could fall even though the earlier warm periods brought increases.
- D
Flourishing edible plants would make lower yields harder to explain, to the extent these are the region's crops. Increased rainfall is another condition to consider, but this choice gives it a beneficial effect. We need something that helps account for the decrease, not another reason to expect more growth.
- E
Winter farming could matter to yearly yields, so we shouldn't dismiss it merely because it concerns winter. But a current climate barrier doesn't explain a future decline as conditions warm. If warming removed that barrier, it could open another growing season and increase production. The answer doesn't give us a reason the next century's total would be lower.
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